2030 is a decade and a half away, and in terms of consumer electronics, it’s reasonable to expect that products will exist that we may not yet have dreamt of. At the same time, 2030 is a mere two automotive industry model cycles away. How different will the automotive world be in 2030?
Follow this link to download Automotive World‘s exclusive report: “Is the auto industry of today ready for the world of 2030?“
At the turn of the century, 2015 looked a long way off. But consider this: it won’t be too long before – depending on their nationality – kids born in the year 2000 will, or at least can, start thinking about voting, paying taxes, joining the army and (maybe even) learning to drive.
This is by no means intended as a review of technology developments over the last 15 years. However, consider this snapshot of products, services and concepts that have appeared since 2000 that have become a part of everyday life:
Mobile broadband went mainstream in 2001, in the same year that Apple launched the iPod; GPS, developed pre-2000, was made available for public use in 2005; the Cloud came to earth in the mid-2000s; the first iPhone was launched in 2007; and the Toyota Prius, launched in Japan in 1997, only became available globally in 2000. Yet to come: connected cars, self-driving cars, apps, the Internet of Things, the ‘UX’ user experience, corporate social media strategy, Big Data and Industry 4.0.
The automotive industry, like so many other fast-moving high-tech sectors, is bracing for change. 2020 – that convenient, vague long-term target – is suddenly just around the corner, so it is to 2030 that we now look for the next round of change.
How different will the automotive world of 2030 be? We’ll leave that to the experts in this report, but let’s look at a few of the ‘known unknowns’ as of mid-2015:
The Eurozone is facing its worst crisis yet; the collapse of the Russian economy is impacting industry sectors well beyond its borders; the Brazilian economy is in a dire state, with the real at its lowest in 12 years – and South America in general is in poor shape; there’s a bruised Mexican peso on the US border; Chinese authorities are trying to fend off a potential stock market crisis; Iran is suddenly a contender; the US is negotiating free trade agreements on a number of fronts; and at least one new trading bloc (ASEAN) is just months from formalisation.
How much could a geographic shift in economic power influence the automotive industry that we know today, and how prepared is the status quo for such a shift?
Technology is influencing every aspect of automotive development, from safety electronics to consumer electronics. Moore’s Law, which states that computer processing power could double every two years, has lately been called into question – but even on a three-year cycle, we’re looking at processing speeds in 2030 that are five times faster than today, with chips of a thickness less than 10nm.
Given that 2030 is only two car model cycles away, it’s reasonable to assume that a majority of cars will still rely on ICE technology; but what can we expect to power the new vehicles hitting the market in 2030? 15 years ago, it was assumed that new powertrain technology would be required, and electric car development had begun, albeit in the form of the lease-only GM EV1 (which itself was history by 2000). However, the industry could not agree on the powertrain technology of the future (plus ca change!), and as a result, despite car-level technology developments, infrastructure-level developments lag behind and the public highways remain the domain of the ICE.
In terms of manufacturing, by 2030, Industry 4.0 will be well under way, with considerations of ‘version’ 4.1 or 5.0. Additive manufacturing will be the talk of the town, but it’s questionable how much of an impact 3D printing and local production can really make within 15 years.
In the world of consumer retail, ownership has already begun to give way to usership and the sharing economy in many walks of life, including automotive. It’s hard to imagine the sharing economy succeeding in remote and rural areas, but it’s also difficult to picture large SUVs making an appearance in the megacities of 2030. What we can safely assume is that car ownership and use will be considerably different in our outlook period, and that automotive service providers will have considerable influence over the development and appearance of the cars they want to buy and operate.
With FCA Chief Executive Sergio Marchionne leading the call in 2015 for industry consolidation, and convergence already occurring among some of the big suppliers, how will the structure of the automotive industry in 2030 differ from today? Can we expect to see the same OEMs and suppliers? Think back to the automotive landscape of 2000, and consider the changes that could come in the next decade and a half; what level of M&A might have been attempted, or achieved? Which new entrants might make Tesla look like an establishment player?
The above is merely a short list of challenges and questions. The automotive industry is entering a 15-year period of societal and industrial development more rapid than ever before. Here’s the big question: is the automotive industry of today ready for the automotive world of 2030?
Martin Kahl
Follow this link to download Automotive World‘s exclusive report: “Is the auto industry of today ready for the world of 2030?“
