Motor shows are the automotive industry’s time to shine, the big opportunity to showcase new technology and future strategy. With that in mind, the ambitions of the Japanese automotive industry were laid bare at the 2015 Tokyo Motor Show, highlighting a widening gulf between the confidence of ‘Japan Automotive’ and the cautious development of other global players.
The European OEMs used the 2015 Frankfurt motor show (IAA) to play it safe, and promote the products that consumers want right now; then, just days after the show opened, the VW NOx emissions scandal broke, and it became clear that in looking to the now, rather than to the future, the European OEMs with their focus on diesel and ICEs had missed an open goal.
Contrast that with the 2015 Tokyo Motor Show, the domain of an industry with its sights set firmly on the future, with fuel cell cars, alternative powertrain technology and autonomous driving all making the headlines.
The 2015 Tokyo Motor Show highlighted a widening gulf between the confidence of ‘Japan Automotive’ and the cautious development of other global players
Toyota – which recently regained its global lead from VW – has set ambitious emissions targets for its vehicles and its factories for 2020 and 2050, to be achieved through a range of means including advances in alternative powertrain technology. Nissan – headed by a Chief Executive bullish about autonomous driving and about electric vehicles (EVs) – is working with NASA to develop autonomous EVs for use not only on earth but also in space. It’s also pursuing fuel cell technology, although not with the open enthusiasm of Honda and Toyota, both of which had production FCVs and concepts on show in the Big Sight complex. And Nissan’s not the only one of the Japanese big three developing autonomous drive technology – Honda and Toyota also have their sights sets on hands-off-the wheel driving by 2020.
Of course, FCV development is also taking place in Europe, North America and Korea, and there’s confidence that plug-in and battery electrification will be crucial to meet various regional emissions targets (although the EPA’s Christopher Grundler sees advanced gasoline engines combined with mass reduction and better transmissions as the way to the US 54.5mpg target). And several global OEMs have said they will have autonomous car technology ready by or from 2020.
That year is particularly important for the Japanese OEMs, with Honda, Nissan and Toyota looking to use the exposure offered by the 2020 Tokyo Olympics to display their automotive technology leadership – and in particular, leadership in autonomous driving.
A focus on the future, a pursuit of technology leadership in powertrain and electronics, and a fixed target to aim for in the shape of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics – it’s looking like Japan Automotive’s time to shine
A new AW report questions whether autonomous cars will really be commercially available by 2020, and presents key stakeholder opinions on when we can expect to see autonomous cars on our roads. (One of the report’s key findings? “It depends…”)
We’ve heard confident assurances from European and US OEMs about their intentions to bring future powertrain, connectivity and autonomous drive technology to market. Tokyo 2015, however, showed not just innovative ideas, but also a confidence that many of those ideas could become production reality.
Whilst the European OEMs deliberate the best way to meet targets should consumers decide to turn their backs on diesel, the next few years could prove critical for the Japanese automotive industry. A focus on the future, a pursuit of technology leadership in powertrain and electronics, and a fixed target to aim for in the shape of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics – it’s looking like Japan Automotive’s time to shine.
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Martin Kahl is Editor, Automotive World
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