In 2012, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Transportation’s (DOT’s) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued rules to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve fuel economy for light-duty vehicles from MY2017 through MY2025. The organisations predicted that the rules would result in a CO2 fleet average of 163g/m in MY2025 and fuel economy average of 54.5mpg.
But according to Chris Nevers, Director of Climate Change and Fuel Economy, Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, there are some “plausibility concerns with these early government compliance pathways.” Speaking to Automotive World, he explained that if OEMs “pick these pathways, they won’t be able to meet the targets beyond 2021.”
Giveaway gas
The rules set out by the US EPA and NHTSA do not force OEMs to adopt certain technologies that will allow them to meet the targets. Instead, they provide a set of directions as to how the targets can be met.
OEM investment in technologies to improve fuel economy is in danger of declining, continued Nevers. “The single biggest issue we have right now is low fuel prices. Much of the benefits of the rules governing fuel economy and CO2 targets were sold on fuel savings, so it becomes much more difficult to sell technologies to improve fuel economy when they don’t save consumers as much money in the long-term.”
Although US drivers may have benefitted from a prolonged period of low fuel prices, a report by the American Automobile Association (AAA) suggests that fuel prices are on the rise. In fact, the national average price of fuel recently increased for six consecutive days for the first time since November 2015.
Despite this, pump prices remain low compared to the previous three years, sitting at US$1.75 per gallon. “If anyone says they predicted these low fuel prices, I would take it with a pinch of salt,” Nevers said.
With the low fuel prices in mind, he thinks the US EPA and NHTSA must “signal that the proper benefits are being awarded to those who invest in clean, fuel efficient technologies, otherwise it will dry up. This could have the unintended consequence of blocking off a cost-effective method of reducing GHG and improve efficiency.”
Off-cycle is crucial
Touching on the technologies that could help OEMs meet these targets, Nevers highlighted the importance “off-cycle benefits – meaning those that aren’t taken into account during the test cycle, like reducing air conditioning leakage. These type of reductions are essential in meeting today’s targets, and will be even more essential for future targets.”
Nevers firmly believes that without improving fuel economy through off-cycle reductions, the light-duty fleet would not have met the compliance targets of 2014. He also thinks that there are untapped opportunities to improve fuel economy through off-cycle fuel economy reductions, which will play a key role in helping OEMs meet 2025 targets.
Nevers will be discussing the fuel economy of the US light-duty fleet at Fuel Economy Detroit by Automotive Megatrends, examining technologies that could be integral to meeting targets in the future.
