We have to get to zero, says Dr Mark Rosekind. The NHTSA Administrator refers, of course, to road deaths, of which there were 32,675 in the US alone in 2014. That figure was 25% lower than in 2000, but there is growing concern that the full year figure for 2015, when published, will show an as-yet unexplained 10% year-on-year increase in US road traffic deaths.
In an impromptu townhall-style meeting at Autonomous Car Detroit, Rosekind freely answered unprepared questions from conference delegates including OEMs, suppliers, analysts and journalists.
If an almost-perfect autonomous drive system can save even a few lives, then it’s better than waiting until the technology has been declared perfect
Rosekind sees driver assistance technology as the obvious way to get to zero; 94% of those 32,675 deaths – a number he repeats as often as possible to drive home the message – were caused by human error. Think of 32,675 deaths in terms of a fatal 747 crash every week, says Rosekind. If humans alone cannot prevent those road traffic deaths, then something needs to be done to help them. That something is, of course, autonomous drive technology.
Proven on many an occasion, the technology exists; admittedly, it works best under controlled conditions, and as crashes like the recent low-speed incident involving a Google car and a bus illustrate, it is far from perfect, but Rosekind is leading the push for early adoption of autonomous drive technology. Don’t let perfect get in the way of good, is his message. If an almost-perfect autonomous drive system can save even a few lives, then it’s better than waiting until the technology has been declared perfect.
Until autonomous drive technology is perfect – and probably even once it is – many questions remain unanswered, and many more will surely be asked. Regulation and liability are two massive issues that stand in the way of implementing the technology; the very design of such cars will need to be rethought; business models surrounding autonomous cars have yet to be devised; consumers have yet to be convinced they want the technology; several OEMs have yet to be convinced that they want the technology; and everyone wants – needs – to see car hacking become a thing of the past.
Until autonomous drive technology is perfect – and probably even once it is – many questions remain unanswered, and many more will surely be asked
Autonomous Car Detroit was one of three Automotive Megatrends-organised conferences that took place in Dearborn in mid-March, the others being Connected Car Detroit and Fuel Economy Detroit. Three events, and three big topics – but look closely, and they all overlap and intertwine.
Much more than improving the combustion engine or switching to electric vehicles, the quest for fuel economy involves taking an holistic approach, one that encompasses lightweighting, innovative materials and joining techniques, aerodynamics, driver behaviour and powertrain improvements, as well as connectivity. The ultimate connected car is, of course, an autonomous car. And while autonomous drive technology may not yet be perfect, it’s reasonable to expect the perfect autonomous car to deliver zero crashes, perfect fuel economy and minimal – if not zero – emissions.
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Martin Kahl is Editor, Automotive World
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