Hybridisation is coming
“Hybridisation is definitely coming,” said Geoff Duff of Honeywell Transportation Systems, who predicts that most ICEs will use some form of mild hybrid by 2025. Steven Sherman of Novation Analytics and AVL’s Thomas Huettner both agreed; the ICE, said Sherman, will dominate to 2025, but without additional electrification, it cannot meet future CO2 regulations, so “hybridisation in mild or full form will come.” According to Huettner, “48V mild hybridisation will be a cost-effective element of future OEM fleet CO2 strategies, but it also offers limited CO2 benefits when compared with HEV, PHEV, BEV and FCEVs.”
Schaeffler’s Patrick Lindemann couldn’t have outlined the situation more clearly: by 2035, 30% of European cars will be BEVs, 40% hybrids, and 30% ICEs. In the US, the split will be 26% BEV, 36% HEV and 38% ICE. Thus, over 62% will be electrified. But combine ICEs and HEVs, and by 2035, 70% of vehicles will also still use a combustion engine. There’s plenty of life left in the ICE.
Which powertrain tech for the future? All of them!
The top three best-selling vehicles in the US are pick-ups, and even Ford’s future product portfolio reflects the need to prepare for the future while maintaining near-term sales volumes – a range of new hybrids and EVs is planned for the US, but it’s heavy on trucks and SUVs. “The ICE is not the long-term solution,” said John German of the ICCT, adding, “But beyond the ICE lies the improved ICE.” He cited Mazda’s attempts to achieve 56% thermal efficiency, “which is fuel cell territory. Short term, these improved ICEs make it more difficult to make the transition to other technologies.” The future includes BEVs and FCEVs, but solutions will depend on customer and application: “I don’t think we can predict which technologies are going to win in the long run,” said German. “We need to promote all of them.”
We all need EVs, but we don’t all want EVs
There are three reasons why OEMs are switching to EV, said Ford’s Venkat Anandan: CO2 reduction, fuel economy regulations and the need to reduce energy dependence. As a result, “Most projections are pointing to strong EV sales over the next ten to 15 years.” According to Ford’s Rebecca Shelby, by 2030, up to 30% of new vehicle sales could be EV. But there are barriers to adoption. Range anxiety prevails, and drivers perceive a lack of public charger availability. According to the OEM’s research, 60% of respondents never saw a public charging point during their daily routine. And since vehicles stand motionless for more than 95% of each day, usually at home or workplace, the industry needs to ignore the ‘gas station charging’ model and ensure charge points are located at those ‘routine dwellings’.
Current technology could also be a barrier to adoption, suggested Rakan Chabban of HATCI. The attractiveness of the EVs themselves is countered by the need to use ugly charging cables. The solution? Wireless charging. And for those concerned about the safety and performance of Li-ion batteries, “solid state battery technology is the only technology that could deliver better volumetric energy density and safety,” noted Ford’s Anandan.
Revolutions in gasoline tech will breathe new life into the ice
Electrification is developing in evolutionary form, said Brett Smith of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR), but concurred with German that developments in gasoline engine technology are almost revolutionary. This could prove to be more cost-effective for consumers than electrification. Valeo’s Matti Vint noted that boosted and downsized engine technology is out there now, but in the longer-term, port-fuel injection, direct injection and compression-ignition such as Mazda’s Skyactiv-X engine mean there’s plenty of life left in combustion. Chi La of IAV agreed – through variable compression ratio or low-temperature combustion, we’re going to see improvements in the thermal efficiency of gasoline engines.
Impact of future mobility on propulsion
“Autonomous vehicles won’t just change transportation, they’ll change society,” said the ICCT’s German. Shared ride AVs, and autonomous robo-taxis, will need to offer a smooth ride, with ‘unremarkable’ a common adjective for future AV driving style. They’ll also need enough power to deliver that level of comfort. “The technology is not viable right now for a battery electric automated robo-taxi service,” said CAR’s Smith. When does it become viable? Solid state technology might make a difference, he noted, but we don’t know yet how much energy an AV requires now, or in five years’ time. If battery technology doesn’t develop, robo-taxi services might have to go to fuel cell, or even highly efficient gasoline-hybrid systems. After all, as German noted, “AVs will increase driving, and the explosion in miles travelled will work against EVs.”
This article appeared in the Q2 2018 issue of Automotive Megatrends Magazine. Follow this link to download the full issue
