ICCT: The EU must go further on CO2 truck targets

The European Union in now on the path to become the sixth market to regulate CO₂emissions or fuel consumption of heavy-duty vehicles. Japan, the United States, Canada, China and India have already standards in place. In May 2018, the European Commission released a regulatory proposal for setting CO₂ standards for trucks. The proposal marks the beginning of a legislative process in which the European Parliament and Council will seek an agreement to turn this proposal into law.

The Commission’s proposal sets mandatory targets to reduce the average CO₂ emissions from new HDVs by 15% in 2025 and by 30% in 2030, both relative to a 2019 baseline. The baseline value is based on the certified CO₂ emissions of new trucks collected under the recently adopted monitoring and reporting regulation that comes into force in January 2019.

Setting mandatory CO₂ standards for trucks is a vital step towards the EU’s climate mitigation goals. However, the standards proposed are not in line with either the targets set by the Commission for non-ETS sectors, 40% below 1990 levels in 2030, nor with the targets established by the Paris agreements for 2050, to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

According to ICCT’s fleet modeling, the EU could meet its short-term targets for non-ETS sector by 2030 with a CO₂ reduction for new light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles greater than 40%. In the long-term, if the EU is to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement, it must achieve a greater than 70% CO₂ reduction for light-duty vehicles and close to 50% for heavy-duty vehicles by 2030.

In the impact assessment made for the regulatory proposal, the Commission estimates that CO₂ reductions of 20% in 2025 and 35% in 2030 are not only technologically feasible but would result in greater economic and societal benefits. Therefore, the HDV CO₂ standards should at least establish limits that make use of the entire cost-effective potential identified in the Commission’s impact assessment.

Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea, countries where European manufacturers have a strong presence, are in various stages of developing policies to improve the efficiency of their commercial vehicle fleets. Stringent European HDV CO₂ standards will have a positive influence in the policy developments in these markets. With Europe’s help, GFEI’s target of a 35% reduction in average fuel consumption of new HDV vehicles globally by 2035 will be within arm’s reach.