The road ahead for the global truck industry will likely be profitable but more competitive. Our analysis through 2030 reveals that mature, high-margin markets will remain major profit pools for the medium- and heavy-duty truck sector (trucks of more than six tons), and that industry trends are expected to further increase the importance of the aftersales business for OEMs.
The global truck industry will likely be profitable, and aftersales are expected to grow more important.
Those are just some of the findings from our new report, Route 2030—A regional view of truck industry profit pools. This article summarizes additional insights from the report, which draws on market data and annual reports of major truck OEMs covering about 80 percent of the global sales volume in medium- and heavy-duty trucks.
Overall, truck profits are expected to increase by €4.9 billion, reaching €16.1 billion in 2030. Of that pool, aftersales profits will account for €7.1 billion, with 21.1 percent return on sales, thus accounting for almost half the global OEM profit pool by 2030. In fact, our research reveals that advanced markets already exhibit greater profitability in aftersales than in new truck sales.
Regionally, North America and Western Europe remain the most profitable markets, contributing approximately 65 percent to the overall profit pool. Emerging markets will likely experience below-average profitability, especially those in the Asia–Pacific region, India, and South America (although Brazil is showing signs of a market recovery). Central and Eastern Europe will probably be the only region to combine relatively strong profitability (6.2 percent return on sales in 2030), with above-average unit volume growth at a compound annual growth rate of 3.8 percent through 2030. The expected strong recovery in Russia will mainly drive this performance.
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SOURCE: McKinsey & Company
