VDA: Production and market in September 2024: Car production increases significantly in September

After the first three quarters of 2024, passenger car production in Germany will amount to 3.1mn units. This is 1% below the figure for the first three quarters of the previous year. Compared to the pre-crisis year of 2019, production after nine months of the current year was 13% below the 2019 value. In September, domestic passenger car production reached a volume of 393,600 units. That was 9% more than in the same month last year.

Exports have developed somewhat more dynamically than production so far this year. Since January, 2.4mn new cars have been exported, 3% more than in the same period last year. After the first three quarters, exports are still almost 10% below the pre-crisis level of 2019. In September, 305,400 brand new cars were exported from production facilities in Germany (+11%).

Compared to the same month last year, 19% more orders were registered from within Germany in September of this year. Incoming orders from abroad were 6% below the previous year’s level. Overall, 4% fewer orders were recorded in September than in the same period last year. After the first three quarters, there were almost 2% more orders than in the previous year.

After the first three quarters of 2024, new car registrations on the German passenger car market are in the red – despite a previous year’s level that was already weak by historical comparison. In the first nine months, a total of 2.12mn new cars were registered. This was 1% less than after the first three quarters of the previous year. As a result of the recent decline in car registrations, the gap to pre-crisis levels is growing again somewhat: the current volume is almost 23% below the sales level in the same period in 2019. In September, new registrations fell for the third time in a row compared to the same month last year. In the past month, 208,800 new cars were registered in Germany, this is 7% fewer than in September of the previous year.

The German market for electric cars (BEV, PHEV, FCEV) continues to develop below average over the course of the year and cannot keep up despite the overall weak performance of the overall market. After nine months, a total of 409,400 units were newly registered, thus 20% fewer than in Q1 to Q3 of the previous year. In September, 49,400 electric cars were newly registered. This was almost 5% more than a year earlier. Due to the environmental bonus for commercial owners expiring on August 31 of the previous year, September 2023 was correspondingly low in terms of volume, which is why the growth rate for the past month is so positive.

However, sales figures for BEVs in particular continue to develop undynamically. After nine months, a total of just over 276,400 purely battery-electric vehicles have been registered so far this year, 29% fewer than in the same period last year. In September, the market picked up slightly compared to the previous year due to the special effect described above and turned positive again for the first time after seven months of negative change. The volume of 34,500 registered units was almost 9% above the previous year’s level.

The PHEV segment has recently developed more stably. 14,900 newly registered units in the past month were around 3% less than in September of the previous year, but the current year as a whole is positive. In the first nine months, a total of 132,900 PHEVs were newly registered – almost 8% more than in the same period last year.

Demand for electric vehicles is currently weak overall in Germany. Accordingly, the VDA is moderately adjusting its forecasts for electric vehicle sales for 2024: The VDA expects a decline in new registrations on the German electric car market in 2024 as a whole by 21% to 551,000 units (previous forecast: -17% to 578,000 units). The reduction is above average in the BEV segment. The VDA expects a decline in sales of 29% to a volume of 372,000 vehicles (previous forecast: -25% to 393,000 units). The forecast for the PHEV segment is also being slightly reduced. While the VDA had previously expected sales to increase by 5% to 185,000 units, the new forecast is now +2% and 179,000 vehicles.

The VDA recently presented a 10-point plan, aimed among other things to a more dynamic ramp-up of electromobility in the future, and identified the necessary measures for climate-neutral mobility in the plan. In addition to this, the VDA is calling for the review of fleet regulation for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, which the EU Commission is only planning for 2026, to be brought forward to 2025. The VDA also demands that progress is to be regularly reviewed politically after that, and for any necessary adjustments to be identified and made on this basis. The review of fleet regulation for heavy commercial vehicles, which is planned for 2027, should also be brought forward by one year to 2026.

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