Despite worldwide initiatives to improve safety, we still see over 1.3 million people killed on the roads globally each year, and whilst road fatalities in the European Union (EU) dropped from 54,900 in 2001 to 31,500 in 2010, by 2017 the number decreased more gradually to 25,300. Vision Zero aims to eliminate these fatalities along with the severely injured through the introduction of a range of transport system strategies.
Manufacturers have continued to improve the safety of vehicles both for occupants and other road users through the introduction of passive technologies to mitigate the consequences of a crash and, increasingly, active safety technologies to avoid the crash in the first place.
The evolution of Euro NCAP standards over the last 22 years has maintained the pressure to not only ensure that vehicle safety technologies are fitted as standard to new vehicles, but also in continually raising the requirements for achieving a top rating. UK statistics show a 65% reduction in occupant killed and serious injury over this time and we now see the new collision avoidance technologies delivering similar benefits with a 38% reduction in rear end crashes due to Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) becoming an integral part of the five-star rating. These systems will be mandatory on new cars across Europe from 2022 as part of the General Safety Regulations from the European Commission.
Assisted driving systems which support drivers in both regulating speed and lane keeping are a standard feature of many of 2019’s new vehicles. Whilst these systems are not always beneficial on every road, they will reduce driver fatigue on long motorway journeys and provide backup support where the driver fails to respond in time whilst leaving safer headways, allowing drivers more time to safely intervene. However, there is a risk that as these systems become more competent, we may see new accidents where drivers become over-reliant on the system’s capability and over-confident in the vehicle’s ability to drive. There are already examples of fatalities in vehicles where drivers have treated assistance systems as though they were self-driving systems. Euro NCAP will add new Assisted Driving test procedures co-authored by Thatcham Research in 2020, giving consumers guidance on the benefits and use of these systems.
All of today’s production systems rely on the driver being in control and the vehicle providing background support. With over 90% of accidents attributable to human error, the need for increased automation to take over the driving task, and by doing so removing that human element, becomes crucial to the delivery of Vision Zero. In the short term, we can have some assurance that assisted driving will contribute, but it alone will not achieve it.
Automated Driving and, ultimately, Autonomous Driving (where a driver is no longer needed and essentially becomes a passenger) have the potential to deliver significant reductions in road deaths. However, this will only be achieved if we can be assured that the vehicles will be safer than current human drivers. This is not just a matter of the car driving safely when it is in control but also the need for the human machine interaction to be seamless. The UK insurers and Thatcham Research’s recent launch of a key document on Safe Automation, highlighting 12 key criteria required to achieve this, should be the focus of automakers and regulators.
Automated Driving is rightly seen as a sea change for road safety, and achieving the Vision Zero mission
Requirements for safe automation focus on the vehicle and the driver. While it is essential that the Automated Driving Systems (ADS) are highly capable when they are in control, the user must be able to safely take back control when needed.
Manufacturers will have to clearly define the ‘Operational Design Domain’ for automation. The systems may be designed for motorways and can be geofenced; however, road, weather, time of day and traffic conditions can all limit the capability of the system, so it is very important that the conditions are known and, if they start to break down, the car can safely hand back control.
The first ADS will be designed for more limited areas, such as low speed queueing traffic where the vehicle sensors can build a better picture of the surroundings and there is more time to respond to an emerging risk. If the driver is needed as the queue clears and cars speed up, there is time to safely hand back control. If the driver fails to take over, then it is essential that the car can change lanes and find a safe area to park: stopping in lane may not be the safest option and must not be the default.
The systems need to ensure that users are aware of their responsibilities when handing control to the car and how the system works. In first-generation automated vehicles, it’s likely that drivers will need to be available to take back control in the event of an unplanned or unforeseen situation such as roadworks or heavy snow. Therefore, drivers should not be able to undertake any activity that could be distracting, like reading a book or using a mobile phone. Only allowing a driver to use the car’s infotainment system can at least in some way “tie” the driver to the car and therefore encourage the user to retake control by stopping the non-driving task they were doing. Whilst this may limit the appeal of the first generation of automated systems, it will help keep users safe. Only when systems can handle all circumstances will a driver be able to become completely disconnected and read a book or even sleep.
Driver monitoring is the key technology here, due to the ability of Driver Monitoring Systems (DMS) to control the driver’s actions, and DMS should become a critical component to new car system architecture. These systems can monitor the driver to ensure they do not undertake tasks deemed too distracting, and can also ensure drivers are back in control, with hands on the wheel and eyes on the road.
The same monitoring systems will check the user is fully engaged in driving again before automation can cease. Studies have shown that while a driver can take control within a matter of seconds, it can take over 40 seconds to fully re-engage—driver assistance will be critical to minimising collisions during the transition. Of course, DMS can also deliver tremendous benefits in manual driving, to prevent texting, drowsiness and alcohol and drug abuse.
Although the ADS will be doing the safe driving, it is important to realise that in the background, state of the art collision avoidance technology will also be present as backup, to avoid or at least mitigate an unexpected event. This again removes any reliance on the driver to intervene.
With over 90% of traffic incidents attributable to human error, the need for increased automation to take over the driving task, and by doing so removing that human element, becomes crucial to the delivery of Vision Zero
Cars will still have crashes for some time to come, and with a mix of humans and vehicles in the driving seat, it is important to know who was in control. Manufacturers will need to make data available to insurers to establish this. Drivers will become passengers if the car was in control, making them eligible for compensation.
The systems will also need to be cyber secure. We have already seen the security issues arising from vulnerabilities in today’s keyless technologies, but if a hacker can take control of the car or simply disable it, the potential for catastrophic events step up. In addition, with system functionality driven by software updates, the need for sustainability and at least ten years of support by the manufacturer will mean that redundancy is not an issue to consumers.
Automated driving systems will continue to develop as sensor and processing capability improve, and algorithms gain more experience of safe driving. However, to gain the greatest benefit in reducing road casualties, these advances need to go hand in hand with upgrades and improvements to the transport and connectivity infrastructure. This will in turn improve the safety of vulnerable road users and ensure that safe driving becomes normal behaviour across all road users, in all conditions and road types, regardless of whether the car or the driver are in control.
Fully autonomous vehicles which do not require a driver and can deal with different road types and conditions are a long way off. Until then, a safe transition from the interim stages of Assisted to Automated systems is essential.
Automated Driving is rightly seen as a sea change for road safety, and achieving the Vision Zero mission. However, new and emerging technologies with inexperienced users, in an increasingly complex highways environment, requires heightened levels of vigilance from regulators, vehicle manufacturers and users.
Follow this link to download the Thatcham Research and ABI report, ‘Defining Safe Automated Driving’
About the author: Matthew Avery is director of research at Thatcham Research
This article is part of Automotive World’s special report, What is the role of Vision Zero in the future of mobility?, which is available now to download
