Canada: how much production will be lost to tariffs?

In 2023 Mexico made close to three times as many cars and light trucks as Canada with a dozen manufacturers active in the country. Canada by contrast has just five manufacturers, but with much uncertainty at all of them now that the threat of a 25% tariff looms. Ford, GM, Stellantis and the Japanese duo of Honda and Toyota have production ranges which could—to varying extents—be moved south across the border if tariffs make Canadian production unviable in the long term.