“It depends…” – that’s the vague but widely used response to the question, will we see autonomous cars on our roads by 2020? Some OEMs have said, with varying degrees of confidence, that they will have autonomous drive technology ready in or by 2020.
“It depends…” on what is meant by ‘autonomous’ – highly-automated driving or feet-off-hands-off-brain-off? “It depends…” on what is meant by ‘our roads’ – controlled conditions, campus settings, or public roads? Will consumers have access to highly automated cars? “It depends…” on whether they are ‘driving’ them in closely monitored test conditions, or from home to the local shops along public roads.
“It depends…” on what is meant by ‘autonomous’ – highly-automated driving or feet-off-hands-off-brain-off?
“It depends…” is central to the autonomous car debate, according to a new report by Automotive World, which presents the views of key automotive industry stakeholders in response to the question, “Autonomous cars by 2020 – really?”
The vehicle manufacturers know they need to be in the autonomous car race; it’s what led to the establishment of the Audi/BMW/Daimler consortium to acquire Nokia’s mapping division, HERE; it’s what led Daimler’s Dieter Zetsche to say recently that if there’s any disruption to be done, he wants his company to be doing it; and it’s thought to be behind Daimler’s long-term partnership with telematics services provider WirelessCar.
Even the disruptors need to watch out; Tesla has taken the lead and jumped early with Autopilot, the first iteration of its autonomous drive technology which Automotive World experienced first-hand at the OEM’s European facility.
Automotive suppliers will play a key role in the autonomous car race, too. Delphi has already demonstrated and discussed its autonomous car technology, and in a recent analyst call, the company’s Chief Executive Kevin Clark said of autonomous driving, “No other theme could be more top-of-mind for the industry at the moment”.
Even the disruptors need to watch out; Tesla has taken the lead and jumped early with Autopilot, the first iteration of its autonomous drive technology
“I don’t think you’re going to see any of the major OEMs bring vehicles without steering wheels to market by 2020,” said FISITA President Paul Mascarenas, speaking to Automotive World at the engineering federation’s World Automotive Summit in London this week.
For fully autonomous cars, the timescale starts somewhat later than 2020 (which is only just over four years away); expect to hear about driverless car availability from 2025 onwards. But as to exactly where and when – well, it depends…
[divider]
Martin Kahl is Editor, Automotive World
The AutomotiveWorld.com Comment column is open to automotive industry decision makers and influencers. If you would like to contribute a Comment article, please contact editorial@automotiveworld.com
