Europe’s OEMs struggle with the realities of electrification

It could be argued that Volvo Cars’ decision to dilute its 100% electric vehicle (EV) sales by 2030 goal is symbolic of European automotive’s current difficulties. The Geely-owned Swedish brand was among the first to set such a target in 2021, soon joined by Mercedes-Benz and Renault, while BMW and Volkswagen aimed for a less ambitious 50% and 80%, respectively. Enthusiasm was high and kept building: new EV registrations in Europe reached a new peak in 2023: 3.2 million, up 20% year-on-year, according to the International Energy Agency.

However, biting economic challenges in early 2024 combined with saturation of the early adopter market saw momentum slow down noticeably. Hybrid sales began picking up as customers looked for cleaner but more affordable options. Now, with the battery EV transition taking longer than initially expected and strategic reassessments ongoing, the more cautious targets of BMW and VW have been vindicated.

The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) recorded that hybrids’ total market share of new vehicle sales reached 32% in July 2024, up 6.5% year-on-year. Mild hybrids were the only electrified powertrain to score growth, and automakers are expanding their product portfolios accordingly. In August, for example, Porsche bought a controlling stake in a battery manufacturer—V4Drive—that produces cells for its Porsche 911 Carrera GTS hybrid. Does this general retreat to older technology mean enthusiasm for battery EVs in Europe is fading?