There can be no doubt that the ICE will remain a fixture of trucking for years to come: a leading zero-emissions solution for long-haul trucking is yet to emerge, and estimates of when alternative drivetrains could reach price parity with the ICE mean that in the short to mid-term, new diesels are still going to leave the lots in significant numbers. Research on the US market from FTI Consulting predicts that whilst battery-electric short haul could compete with diesel on TCO by 2023, long-haul fuel cell truck TCO won’t drop sufficiently until the second half of the 2030s, and green hydrogen until 2040. Battery-electric long-haul could be viable as soon as 2026, but a lack of high-power fast-charging infrastructure and associated weight penalties means significant hurdles still litter the road to adoption.
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