Robotaxis make headlines; would autonomous buses make money?

The autonomous vehicle (AV) segment has experienced a noticeably bumpy ride in recent years, particularly in the US. Between Q4 2022 and Q4 2024, Ford-Volkswagen joint venture Argo AI shut down and General Motors’ Cruise was involved in a traffic collision that eventually led its main backer to step away. Safety concerns excepted, investors began to question whether hype would ever translate into ROI.

However, Tesla’s pivot to focusing on vehicle AI and launching a robotaxi service in 2025 arguably marked a change in industry sentiment. Nvidia now foresees an imminent “era of physical AI”, and Ark Investment Management projects that autonomous driving could be worth US$10tr by 2030. Tesla, along with players like Waymo and Mobileye, are jostling for slices of that emerging market in places like California and Texas.

But are robotaxis the best application for capitalising on AV technology’s potential? Eran Ofir, Chief Executive of HD-mapless AI-based autonomous driving software company Imagry, doesn’t think so. “Concluding that robotaxis will be the industry’s main revenue stream is a big, big mistake,” he tells Automotive World.