Russia is shifting to a Chinese-based auto industry

Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, European, Japanese and Korean OEMs had been major investors in Russia. Renault led the way, controlling the domestic giant AvtoVAZ and its Lada brand. Volkswagen, Hyundai, Kia, and Toyota all had factories capable of making hundreds of thousands of vehicles a year; Nissan and Stellantis were also present with smaller plants, while Ford and General Motors operated in the country through joint ventures. These companies’ Russian plants supplied the wider formerly Soviet markets, although Stellantis intended to make the Vivaro and similar vans in Russia and then export them to Europe. The war in Ukraine ended that plan, and the sanctions imposed on Russia meant that all the foreign investors shut down their factories or sold them to local investors for nominal sums. Renault has a buy-back option for its stake in AvtoVAZ that lasts for six years. Whether it will want or be able to exercise that option is another matter.