For some, such as those involved in the Russian automotive industry and in Brazil’s truck industry, in particular, 2015 cannot end soon enough. For others, like those enjoying booming sales in the US light vehicle and the US heavy CV market, and in similar markets in Europe, 2015 has turned out to be a rather positive year.
What, then, does 2016 hold for the global automotive industry?
In the US, what we do know is that there will be a presidential election, the publication of the NHTSA/EPA Phase II GHG final rule, a decline in truck output and, if the OEMs make it happen, possibly even a seventh consecutive year of light vehicle market growth. What we don’t know is what impact the decision to raise interest rates will have on the economy, and on US vehicle sales.
Europe will end 2015 on a high; some uncertainty surrounds the region’s performance in 2016, although (at the time of writing) the mood is one of caution rather than concern.
Across the BRIC markets, expect Brazil and Russia to remain flat at best, and China to continue growing, albeit at a much slower rate; all eyes are on India, which shows considerable promise as its automotive industry emerges from a downturn brimming with pent-up demand, high consumer confidence, widely forecast economic growth and a Prime Minister keen to make his automotive industry a global top 3 player within a decade.
TTIP and TPP negotiations will continue in 2016, but whilst many of the ideas make sense at a corporate level, there’s little enthusiasm for either amongst the general public.
What members of the public are enthusiastic about, however, is cheap fuel and the price of oil looks set to remain low heading into and through 2016. We watch with interest as Iran returns to the oil market – how will this affect oil prices, and how will the increasingly rattled-looking OPEC react – has its gamble back-fired?
It’s likely that the public debate about pollution and emissions will become more widespread in 2016. The increasing consumer awareness of and concern about emissions – from questionable tailpipe emissions in Europe and the US to severe smog alerts in India and China – could turn previously quiet voices into more prominent ones, most likely transcending borders.
In terms of car launches in 2016, we can look forward to the motor show debuts of the Chevy Bolt and Volvo S90, and the market launches of the Honda/Acura NSX, the Honda FCV, the Infiniti QX30, the Jaguar F-Pace, Kia’s Niro dedicated C-segment hybrid, the Range Rover Evoque Convertible, a seven-seat Skoda SUV and the Tesla Model X. For many drivers, however, a trip to the dealership will be in response to a recall notice; among the many millions of cars that will no doubt be recalled worldwide in 2016, several million will be VW Group cars as the OEM seeks to resolve its NOx emissions defeat device disaster.
The annual ‘Guide to the automotive world…’ features once again a mix of interviews with and contributions from key industry watchers to provide a broad overview of the main trends, challenges and opportunities facing OEMs, suppliers and anyone else with a vested interested in the automotive industry.
Welcome to 2016!
Martin Kahl
