A new report published by Automotive World examines the market prospects for light vehicles (LVs) and heavy vehicles (HVs) in Africa in the period to 2022.
With an aggregate population in excess of 1.2 billion, GDP per capita of US$5,250 (PPP basis) and low levels of car ownership, the African continent has some similarities to China at the turn of the century. However, the similarities do not extend to the pattern of growth forecast for the African vehicle market.
In 2017, demand for new light vehicles fell for the third successive year to 1.1 million units, and demand for new heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs) has also fallen for three years, reaching 162,000 units.
The report’s author, Jonathan Storey, commented, “For more than three decades, I have been reading forecasts that Africa is the next big growth market – a rising middle class, greater wealth, the spread of democratic governments and so on. However, continent-wide that ‘big growth’ keeps failing to appear. The report’s conclusion is that yes, the African market is set to grow, but at a pace which is steady rather than spectacular. Mind you, this is no bad thing.”
The near-term outlook is good for African light vehicle demand, which from 2018 is expected to begin a recovery, heading to a new peak by 2022. In the heavy commercial vehicle sector, demand is forecast to grow over the forecast period by a CAGR of 5.0%. Note, however, that the volatility of many African markets means there are significant risks to the forecasts, both upside and downside.
Africa is the latest region to be covered in the ongoing Automotive World five-year market outlook series.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Chapter 1: The region of Africa
- Chapter 2: Light vehicle demand and market characteristics
- Chapter 3: Economic outlook
- Chapter 4: LV outlook
- Chapter 5: Market characteristics, HCV demand and outlook
Automotive World subscribers can access the report by following this link: https://www.automotiveworld.com/research/africas-new-vehicle-market-prospects-to-2022/
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