Since the last report there has been a distinct improvement in the outlook for many, if not all, West European economies. As a consequence, the forecast of a sharp slowdown in demand for trailers in the region during 2018 has moderated, but it has not disappeared.
Instead of demand dropping by approximately 15% in 2018 a decline in demand of 9% is now forecast, followed by a further small drop in 2019 leading to a total shrinking of the market by 13% over the two years.
For 2017 it is still expected that the demand for trailers will increase in the first half of the year but decline slightly in the second half. Overall however, 2017 will now see a 2% increase in registrations rather than a 2% fall.
Following the decline in demand in 2018/19 there will be a return to growth in trailer sales in 2020/21. Furthermore, as we move into the 2020s it is likely that demand for commercial vehicles will follow an upward path so that by mid-decade we will be approaching levels above those of 2017.
The outcome of these changes is that 30,000 trailers have been added to the forecast during the 2017-21 period, with roughly half of that total boosting the 2018 figure. Most of these extra trailers added to the forecast will be sold in the Big 7 countries of Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium, with Italy performing particularly well after its slow recovery from the GFC of 2009.On the other hand the UK market is currently receding from the heady level of trailer demand seen in 2015/16 and as a result will have the unique distinction of shrinking every year from 2016 to 2019. Despite this trend, the UK will not fall below 20,000 trailers per annum which is above the typical level of the market before the GFC.
Gary Beecroft, director of CLEAR opined “The brexit effect, which has already dropped the UK investment forecast close to zero for the 2016-18 period, will result in uncertainty and low business confidence during the run up to the UK leaving the EU in 2019. However when (if) the brexit terms have been settled there will be a resumption of trailer market growth.”
Background
77% of all goods in Europe are moved by road and most of that proportion is transported in a trailer.
The West European Trailer Market Report (May 2017), with forecasts to 2021, can be obtained from CLEAR using the contact details below. A new report for the East European market was issued in March 2017. A Global Trailer Database will be published in July 2017.
