TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,288,972 units in September, down 2.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. For the third quarter, total vehicle sales are forecast to be 4,334,457 units, up 1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days, which would mark the first quarter in 2019 to show an increase in sales year-over-year. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.4 million units, with ALG projecting 2019 new car sales to continue to stay on course to reach 17M units as initially forecast in January. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,075,416 million units, a decrease of 4.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“Despite a slight rebound in consumer confidence in September, overall auto sales are expected to decline given that Labor Day weekend fell into August this year,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Nevertheless, the third quarter was up and auto sales remain on pace to hit 17 million units for 2019 aided by more fleet and incremental incentives.”
Additional Takeaways & Trends: (Forecast by ALG)
- Hyundai stood out for sales growth up 9.2% for total unit sales and 7.5% for retail sales year-over-year, continuing to see strong performance in its all-new Palisade model.
- Despite having no product launches, Honda is also expected to be up 7.4% on total vehicle sales and 6.6% on retail sales year-over-year, aided by strong Civic performance as well as increased incentive spend and fleet sales.
- Tesla continues to show strong sales growth, up 26.7% in total units year-over-year spurred by enduring popularity of its Model 3.
- Automaker average incentive spend should reach $3,975, up 4.9% or $184 dollars year-over-year, and up 0.3% or $12 from August 2019. The most notable declines in incentive spend are expected from Daimler, Hyundai, and BMW. Meanwhile Subaru, GM, and Honda are expected to have double-digit incentive increases.
“Subaru has long been an all-star when it comes to incentives discipline, and while the YOY spending is up nearly 50%, with an aging portfolio and new entries in hyper-competitive segments, the brand is still performing as the industry’s MVP with regard to vehicle discounting,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar.
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SOURCE: TrueCar
